Ask TRAC (Technical Remediation Advisory Committee) when they last discussed any of the highly toxic compounds in the Title above. They can honestly suggest that they've discussed NDMA a lot and DNAPLS very little. It's likely been many, many months since discussion of dioxins and DDT in the downstream Canagagigue Creek. Absolutely zero discussion of dioxins or DDT in Elmira's drinking water aquifers. That would be considered rude, inflammatory and grounds for Elmira's largest polluter to walk away FOR THE THIRD TIME from what pathetically passes for public consultation here in Woolwich Township. PCBs and Mercury in the downstream Creek are simply never discussed. That too would be viewed as rude because the MECP somewhat oddly has accused them of contributing everything else but those.  As far as the claim that these chemicals are also in our homes just keep in mind that they all can be transported by air as well as all the other mechanisms.

MECP technically does not stand for Ministry of Expanded Corporate Pollution as it should. That provincial ministry prefers Ministry of Environment, Conservation & Parks which is nonsense. Similar to municipal committees many provincial ministries are simply to stand in as buffers and insulators between outraged citizens and their corrupt and incompetent governments. Uniroyal Chemical and other local, dirty polluters did not poison our lives, bodies and homes overnight. They did it one decision at a time as they found such little government oversight and supervision for each and every self-serving decision not to properly dispose of highly toxic materials but to do so in an inexpensive, careless and negligent fashion.

In answer to my question above, it does get worse. We drink water, we breathe air and we eat food from our gardens. Some of us have also eaten fish from the "Gig" decades ago, some more recently. Warning signs not to do so have only been erected perhaps eight years ago along the Creek and it was done by Woolwich in response to the MECP's refusal to do so..  There is a man made swimming pond perhaps 75-100 metres south-east of Uniroyal/Lanxess on the Martin property. It's water source is both groundwater and surface water. Originally the surface water was from a naturally flowing very small creek originating on the Stroh property in a low lying, wet area just north of the Martin farm. That "water" source was enhanced in the summer/fall of 1983 by the construction of the Stroh Drain which runs parallel to the former Uniroyal property for 125 metres and is about five to ten metres away. This self-serving, manmade Drain was to literally drain the chemical swamp (courtesy of Uniroyal Chemical) on the Stroh property and it was joined into the natural very small creek which discharges both directly and indirectly into the Martin (swimming) Pond as well as directly into the downstream Canagagigue Creek. The Stroh Drain not only drained the chemical swamp on the Stroh and Uniroyal Chemical property but drained some of the contaminated groundwater as well through the children's swimming pond. I view that not just as worse but as likely criminal behaviour.       

Besides seeing these features with my own eyes I have been accompanied by Sebastian Seibel-Achenbach as well as Mr. Flip Flop, former councillor Mark Bauman. 

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.

Since the July Monetary Policy Report, global economic activity has remained resilient, despite higher energy prices. In the United States, the economy continues to grow at a robust pace, supported by consumer spending and AI-related investment. Growth in the euro area has been resilient and broad-based. After slowing in the second quarter, Chinese growth rebounded in the third quarter, owing to strength in exports and a pickup in fiscal spending. With persistently elevated oil prices and refinery margins, inflation has risen in most countries.   

Given the ongoing resilience of the global economy, the Bank has revised up global GDP growth slightly to 3.1% in 2026, while growth in 2027 and 2028 remains unchanged from the July projection at 3.2%.

Global financial conditions have tightened since July. Advanced economy sovereign bond yields are higher. Equity and credit markets have been volatile due to uncertainty about the outlook for the AI sector. The Canadian dollar had weakened somewhat on US-dollar strength but has since recovered to around 71 cents – the same as assumed in the July Report.

Growth picked up in Canada through the middle of the year. GDP growth was 3.3% in the second quarter, and recent indicators point to growth of about 2% in the third quarter. This is stronger than expected in the July Report. Consumer spending has been solid, even with slow population growth. Business investment rebounded, reflecting oil and gas sector activity and spending on machinery and equipment. Despite ongoing weakness in sectors affected by US tariffs, exports overall have strengthened, owing to robust US demand, higher energy production and increasing signs that businesses are adapting to the changing trade environment. The unemployment rate has been around 6½% for several months. A broad set of indicators continue to point to some excess supply in the economy.  

Owing to new US tariffs, growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter of 2026, before picking up again in 2027. This rebound is supported by business investment, exports and fiscal measures. Consumption growth is expected to moderate and housing to remain relatively weak. 

The Canadian economy is expected to grow 1% in 2026, and 2% in 2027 and 2028. This is a somewhat stronger overall growth projection than the July Report. This forecast is still subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly regarding Canada-US trade relations.

Given persistently high oil prices, CPI inflation has been around 3% since April and is expected to rise to about 3½% by the end of the year. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% in September and measures of core inflation remain close to 2%. But cost pressures are building, with high fuel prices raising the costs of production and transportation. Imported industrial and electronics input prices have also increased. While businesses have mostly absorbed higher input costs so far, Bank surveys suggest cost pass-through will increase over the next year. Near-term household and business inflation expectations have risen, while longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

The conflict in the Middle East is now in its eighth month and there is no clear path to resolution. The combination of higher-for-longer energy prices and increased pass-through adds to the persistence of inflation in the projection. CPI inflation is expected to average 3% in 2027, a percentage point above the July projection, then come down to 2% in the middle of 2028. The main sources of uncertainty around this forecast are developments in the Middle East and businesses’ responses to cost pressures.

In the outlook, inflation is higher and more persistent than in the July Report. Growth has picked up this year and is expected to recover further. Against this backdrop, Governing Council decided to increase the policy rate to reduce the risk that continuing high energy prices spread broadly to the prices of other goods and services. There could be a need to increase the policy rate further, but given uncertainties, Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully. The Bank remains committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability.

♦

• 1-year fixed insured 4.39%
• 2-year fixed insured 4.45%
• 3-year fixed insured 4.34%
• 4-year fixed insured 4.39%
• 5-year fixed insured 4.44%
• 5-year variable insured 3.60%

Is the mortgage stress test still a thing in 2026? Yes it is, and with the higher rates we’ve seen, it’s even harder to qualify for a mortgage. The rules require you to qualify at either 2% above the rate your lender is offering you or 5.25%, whichever is higher.

Being forced to qualify at the higher stress test rate causes the principal portion of your monthly mortgage payment to shrink, lowering the maximum amount you’ll be allowed to borrow for your mortgage. But the rate you’ll actually pay once you buy is the rate you are offered by your lender. Your monthly payments will be calculated from this lower rate, not the stress test rate. As a result your monthly mortgage bill will be smaller too.

The stress test has been quite unpopular so the federal government has rolled out several new changes to make it easier to buy a home. They are now offering a first time buyer’s credit of $5000, and an increase in withdrawals from your RRSP to $35,000.

In addition existing borrowers are no longer required to re-qualify at the stress test rate when they renew or refinance their mortgages. This will allow borrowers some flexibility if they want to choose a different lender as they are no longer under the pressure of qualifying at an additional two percentage points.

If you’re looking for mortgage info or help please reach out.

The post Mortgage Rates appeared first on drew at home.

It is everywhere but no where is the path more smooth, greased, lubricated and blessed than in Doug Ford's Ontario. Landfills, toxic waste dumps (legal or illegal), industrial air emissions, environmental coverups and total failures to clean up industrial sites for decades has become the norm. Be it old problems such as mercury poisoning in the English-Wabigoon river system,  Agent Orange, dioxin and DDT at Uniroyal Chemical in Elmira or new emerging problems such as taking 770 acres of prime farmland out of production in Wilmot Township in order to balance nitrate contamination from fertilizers in the formerly pristine Waterloo Moraine with the more common industrial contaminants from the three cities such as TCE, benzene, toluene, xylenes further mixed with glyphosate (Round Up) and road salt; these major environmental issues are being denied, minimized and ignored all to keep the growth mantra in full swing.

I guess if you are a widget manufacturer, cereal producer, clothing retailer or corner gas bar you always want more customers and a bigger market for your products. Hence you support either Progressive Conservative liars or Liberal liars who promise you more people (immigration- Libs), lower business taxes (Cons) and less red tape (environmental protections, labour protections-both parties). 

Finally both parties are always on the lookout for red herrings to keep citizens both divided and diverted from the main issues. Right now Canadians are injured and dying due to both automobiles and accompanying lack of enforcement of basic driving rules as well as from lack of timely health care based upon too many people chasing understaffed and too few hospitals. Some of that need for health care is directly linked to contamination of the air we breathe, the water we drink and the food we eat. Instead of focusing on the big numbers of dead and dying Canadians our federal Liberal government is focused on legal, law abiding, licensed firearms owners with literally tiny in comparison injury and death numbers. Even those incidents are mostly caused by violent or unstable individuals using illegal firearms smuggled across the U.S. border. Yes the media finds horrific but rare mass shootings sell newspapers and grab headlines better than literally daily car crashes and premature cancer deaths.           

We as uninformed citizens are partly complicit. We with assistance from incompetent and inexperienced wanna be politicians are easy targets for the truth challenged. We want to believe that the smiling, good looking people running for office and telling us what we want to hear, are the real deal. In fact 90% are not. They are lazy, self-serving buggars looking for an easier ride than having supervisers and bosses telling us what to do on a daily basis as we try to navigate the rat race. Citizens pay attention and inform yourselves. Listen and think about what you read and hear. Put serious effort into learning about the real problems facing yourselves and your neighbours. Confront politicians who make bad decisions that serve only them and their parties, not the public. 

New research from Lean In found that many men in the U.S. still hold sexist beliefs about work and leadership, with:

• 47% believing men should be the primary earners for their families.
• 42% believing men are naturally better suited for leadership.
• 34% believing women are too emotional for high-pressure roles.

Sheryl Sandberg’s advice? Don’t let sexist statements go unchallenged.

If someone says, “He should get a larger raise to support his family; after all, she has a husband who is also bringing in a paycheck,” consider asking: “How is that fair?”

If someone says, “Before I’d hire her to lead a business unit, I’d want to make sure she’s already been successful in that kind of role,” point out the double standard. Women can face prove-it-again bias: being expected to demonstrate their capabilities before being considered for opportunities that men may receive based on potential.

And if someone dismisses a woman as “too emotional,” share research published in Harvard Business Review suggesting women may actually be less likely than men to act on emotions when leading.

Make it clear that these assumptions deserve to be questioned, especially when they could influence someone’s pay, opportunities, or career.

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Transgender Awareness Week (November 13–19) is an opportunity to increase understanding about transgender people and the issues they face.

To learn about ways to be a better ally for transgender people, I highly recommend this list of tips from GLAAD. Here’s one I want to highlight:

At meetings and events, set an inclusive tone by avoiding making assumptions about people’s gender. Specifically:

“In a group setting, identify people by articles of clothing instead of using gendered language. For example, the ‘person in the blue shirt,’ instead of the ‘woman in the front.’”

I’ll admit this is something I need to get better at, and I’m actively working on.

GLAAD also recommends avoiding gendered forms of address like Sir and Madam. Instead, we can say distinguished guest, esteemed colleague, or another inclusive phrase.

In a recent Good Vibes in DEI newsletter, Bernadette Smith shared examples of organizations that made it easier for people to vote in the U.S. Lime offered free bike and scooter rides, Lyft provided discounted rides to polling places, and Maryland waived public transit fares on Election Day.

Stepping back from the election itself, Smith encouraged us to think about obstacles inherent in our workplaces:

“Ask your team what small barrier, like a commute or a meeting time, keeps someone from showing up fully. Then remove it.”

What might that look like? Moving a meeting so caregivers can attend. Making sure remote colleagues can participate equally. Rethinking an in-person requirement that isn’t essential.

What small barrier have you removed at work to help someone participate more fully? I’d love to hear your examples. Just reply to this email!

A viral Instagram post by Antiracism Parenting points out that we can have Black friends, but still miss our own bias. That we can believe in fairness, but still protect unfair systems. That we can strive to be a good person, but still cause harm.

As the organization points out, good intentions don’t erase harmful impacts, and having friends or coworkers from underrepresented groups doesn’t mean you’re done learning. They encourage all of us to do the work:

• Listen without defending yourself.
• Correct and change your behavior.
• Speak up when you see it.
• Keep learning, even when it’s uncomfortable.

It’s a good reminder for us all.

Subscriber Brian Greller shared a lesson he learned early in his journey as an ally to transgender and non-binary friends.

He recalled misgendering a friend and apologizing profusely when corrected. But his apology inadvertently made the situation about him, and his friend understandably got upset.

Brian misgendered the same friend again later. This time, he responded differently:

“I had learned from my first big faux pas and made a quick apology, used the correct pronoun, and moved on.”

It was, he said, “a painful but good life lesson.” Now, when he hears someone misgender a friend or colleague, he gently reminds them of the correct pronoun.

Thank you 🙏

And if you’ve taken a step towards being a better ally, please reply to this email and tell me about it. Be sure to mention if I can quote you by name or credit you anonymously in an upcoming newsletter.

That’s all for this week. I’m glad you’re on this journey with me,

Karen Catlin (she/her), Author of the Better Allies® book series

100% written by me. I use AI for light editing and for researching a personal archive of my books and past newsletters.

Copyright © 2026 Karen Catlin. All rights reserved.

Together, we can make a difference with the Better Allies® approach.

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Challenge Sexist Rhetoric, and Other Actions for Allies was originally published in Code Like A Girl on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

When a child experiences abuse or crime, what happens next matters. They may feel frightened, overwhelmed, and unsure of where to turn. The road ahead can involve enduring disclosure, an investigation, and the justice system.

But they don’t have to take that journey alone. We walk alongside young victims and their caregivers from the moment they need us. They find a safe place to be heard, along with trusted support, advocacy, and guidance at every step.

The post Help Kids Take the Next Step ❤️‍🩹 first appeared on Child Witness Centre.

"Governance" is basically a diplomatic way of saying that our politicians are of low quality.  In other words our so called professional politicians are anything but. They are all about themselves and making themselves look good so that they can get re-elected. Three examples come to mind and the first is in today's K-W Record via Susan Koswan's Opinion article titled "Energy and water need better management". She identifies recently released policy briefs from the Morwick G360 Groundwater Research Institute. I think she is referring to the world class group of researchers out of the University of Guelph which would include Dr. Beth Parker, formerly of the University of Waterloo Groundwater Institute.  Years ago I had the privilege of reading a number of groundwater reports written by her and Dr. John Cherry dealing with DNAPLS. Recently I exchanged a couple of e-mails with Dr. Parker regarding the opportunities missed by those in charge of the Elmira cleanup failing to ask for assistance from the world's best, so close to home. Susan Koswan quoted from the Morwick G360 group as follows:  " Ontario's principal challenge is not a lack of groundwater science, but fragmented and reactive governance" for both municipal and agricultural groundwater." That report hit the nail on the head.

Then we have a quote from Dr. Richard Jackson when he was the Chair of the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) in Elmira, Ontario. He advised that TAG were stymied in cleaning up Elmira's groundwater not by technical problems but by "public policy failures" and he resigned shortly afterwards. 

Thirdly all we have to do is look at Wilmot Township today facing the 770 acre farmland expropriation by the Region of Waterloo allegedly on behalf of the province of Ontario. Our regional politicians had a goodly turnover of mayors (all but one) in the recent elections but more veteran regional councillors desperately needed to receive their walking papers and did not. Those buggars won't even share data, scientific reports regarding groundwater or anything else citing Non Disclosure Agreements that they signed with the province. Losing our Regional Chair (Karen Redman) to Doug Ford's appointee was much less painful than expected as she did nothing to assist Wilmot on this file. That area of Wilmot sits on top of the Waterloo Moraine and any new industrial development on recharge groundwater areas needs serious study FIRST not after the properties have been amassed for the development.

Despite recent Waterloo Region claims we are still in a water crisis, not just in Woolwich Twn. (Uniroyal Chemical) but throughout the Region due to decades of reactive governance, public policy failures, non disclosure agreements and gutless wonder politicians covering their own backsides.  

♦

A classic of Yucatan cooking, the scrumptious cochinita is, in its origin, pork slow-roasted in banana leaf.

The flavour, in the classic preparation, is derived from the pork spending a good amount of time marinating in annatto and orange. The former is an orange-red ingredient derived from the seeds of the achiote tree found in the tropical Americas.

Aside from the colour, annatto may also deliver sweetish yet peppery flavour. Annatto is made by grinding the seeds to a paste.

Check out my latest post Cochinita and annatto from AndrewCoppolino.com.

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♦

I love writing. I set down my scratchy black pen, and the love of ink and page and the flow of unexpected discovery and adventure fills me with gratitude, too great to express, yet I want to, so I come here, to say thank you for reading, and thank you for giving me a place to set down my thoughts, now and then.

I am writing a lot this fall. Papers and reflections and journal entries. Notes. Presentations. Writing by hand, writing on yellow lined paper, writing in my notebook. Writing on screen. Rejigging my CV, and composing cover letters, for the purpose of applying to practicum placements, which will start either this spring or next fall. The closest I’ve come to writing fiction is sketching a few “case studies” for essays. I am also writing poems for a final project for one of my courses. The poems are not the point, the reflection will be, but the poems are thrilled to be invited to the conversation. Writing these poems, scratching them out in pen, transferring them to the screen, playing with them, backward and forward, is a balm, is a bright-burning flame.

This program is hard. It requires me to consider, as deeply and thoroughly as I can, how best to use my self. Safe and effective use of self. That is the phrase that guides my focus through the ups and down of this process. I have felt broken and lost, and buoyed and blessed and found, sometimes in the same afternoon. How can I use my self to serve others? Well, I am coming around to recognizing that “safe and effective use of self” isn’t about seeking the hardest path, or the greatest challenge, it is about knowing my strengths, and leaning on them, to make the best use of my whole being in the therapy space.

I am very hard on my self, folks. You may or may not know this. I am pretty sure my family knows it, my kids know it. I’ve tried to shield them from the punishing expectations I’ve put onto myself, but it is likely they have not been spared. I kind of know that, while not wanting to know it. Denial is real, and has a protective purpose, but in time, I would like to un-peel this shell and pull us all into the great love that I feel exists, beyond expectations, with no need to be right or accomplished or better than or perfect. Something that’s true is that I am not perfect. What’s the solution to not being perfect? I think one answer is: Being accountable.

♦

My expectations are shifting, I feel it, and I am learning. I am learning to be gentler to my self, to speak to my self like a friend, and, yes, discover that it is gentler and kinder to recognize and name when I have done wrong, or been wrong, or acted in a way that does not align with my inner compass. To be accountable means to trust that my mistakes will be forgiven, to trust that I won’t be cast out or punished or abandoned or seen as unworthy for making errors, maybe even really egregious errors that cause real harm. I don’t want to cause harm, but as a human, I may and I have. If I name this and know this, I will be able to carry this truth to others, and offer hope.

Hope of repair. Hope of forgiveness. Hope of belonging. Hope of contentment. Hope of respect, dignity, and ultimately, trust in one’s self.

xo, Carrie

Well that's quite the timing. Yesterday Bob Burtt, author and former K-W Record reporter, called for a provincial inquiry in his Letter to the Editor and today the front page of the Record has a story about our brand new, just appointed Regional Chair Scott Davey. Obviously Mr. Davey, a current city of Kitchener councillor, is already going to be very busy in the months ahead and will need to get himself up to speed on many regional issues including our water supply. 

Hmm this calls for a deft, diplomatic touch here in order for me to promote Mr. Burtt's call for an inquiry and to suggest that an experienced local politician as our new regional chair isn't such a bad idea. The problem for me is that certain twits and idiots with vested interests have called me many things, mostly behind my back, but never using the words "deft" or "diplomatic". Oh heck here goes anyways.

I like Bob Burtt and recognize his sincerity and deep interest in our water supply. I do not like how Susan Bryant has wound him around her little finger. Some of us have renamed his 2014 book about the Elmira Water Crisis as "The Ode to Susan". That said how can I seriously be upset with him regarding Susan as she has made a career out of befriending people who can advance her status and knowledge. This included Sylvia Berg, Pat Mclean, Ken Seiling, Bob B. and shudder...myself. I and two others resigned from APTE in January 1994 and I split from her as a friend and colleague in 2008. She and APTE lost another incredibly highly qualified member, and respected nationally and internationally scientist, a few years earlier. O.K. I was an idiot in my own right not to have added things up then and departed sooner. 

As far as Scott Davey goes he hasn't even been on my radar. I am very curious as to whether or not he is a card carrying Conservative or not. Former Regional Chair Karen Redman was a Liberal. Former mayor Sandy Shantz was a Conservative and thank God she wasn't appointed as Regional Chair. Water should be a non partisan issue but of course it's not. Critics of the Region may want an inquiry and supporters and those served well by the Region will not. This much I can say and have said: Our water supply is in great jeopardy both as in Quantity and Quality and lying about it serves only the incompetent and the guilty. That means a ton of politicians do NOT want to hear about it. Keep an eye on the Record and other local papers and lets see if AFTER an election there is any appetite for the truth. I am doubtful but have been wrong before.  

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The 29th annual edition of our signature event will take place on Tuesday, February 9!

The post 2027 Pancake Lunch ✨🥞 first appeared on Child Witness Centre.

Arnoux, M., Cochand, F., Brunner, P., Schaefli, B., Winstral, A., & Hunkeler, D. (2026). Groundwater storage in Quaternary deposits and bedrock buffers the discharge response of a small alpine catchment to climate change. Hydrogeology Journal. doi.org/10.1007/s10040-026-03157-5

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ARTICLE.

“The model was trained to predict monthly groundwater discharge (GWD) and radionuclide transport (RNT), and its performance was evaluated against the results from HGS, which serves as a physically rigorous reference model.”

“Because real-world data for the hypothetical ADioS watershed were unavailable, the HGS model, which is a fully distributed, physically based, integrated surface–subsurface hydrological model, was used to simulate groundwater flow and radionuclide transport for target feature extraction.”

Fig 2. Illustration of the HGS model and geology

We’re pleased to highlight this publication by Marie Arnoux, Fabien Cochand, Philip Brunner, Bettina Schaefli, Adam Winstral, and Daniel Hunkeler, which uses HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to investigate how groundwater storage can buffer the effects of climate change on streamflow in snow-dominated alpine catchments. In particular, the study examines how groundwater stored within different geological formations influences future summer low flows as snow accumulation and melt patterns change.

Alpine regions play an important role in supplying water to downstream valleys, particularly by releasing stored water during warm and dry periods. However, groundwater and the influence of geology are often underrepresented in studies of future alpine water resources. The researchers sought to address this by quantifying groundwater storage dynamics and examining how individual geological units contribute to low-flow generation under current and future climate conditions.

Fig 3. Simulated daily discharge compared to the measured daily streamflow for the period 21.10.2014—01.04.2016

The modelling framework was based on conditions typical of the Vallon de Réchy, an approximately 11 km², non-glacierized alpine catchment in the Swiss Alps. The catchment ranges from 2,150 to 3,148 m above sea level and contains a mixture of bedrock, evaporites, and unconsolidated Quaternary deposits, including alluvium, talus, and moraines. These different geological formations provided the researchers with a basis for investigating where groundwater is stored and how that storage contributes to streamflow.

Using HydroGeoSphere, the researchers developed an integrated surface–subsurface model that simultaneously represents three-dimensional variably saturated subsurface flow, two-dimensional surface flow, infiltration and exfiltration, evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and snowmelt, and catchment discharge. This integrated representation was particularly important because groundwater recharge and exchanges between streams and aquifers are central to understanding how alpine water resources may respond to a changing climate.

The model was evaluated against observed streamflow and groundwater levels, with particular attention paid to reproducing low-flow conditions. For an independent validation period, simulated discharge achieved a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.73, while the study notes that low flows were well reproduced. The researchers then drove the model using two RCP8.5 climate projections from 1981 to 2099, selected to investigate relatively strong warming and changes in snowmelt and groundwater recharge. The authors emphasize that these scenarios represent upper-bound climate impacts rather than moderate future conditions.

The simulations showed substantial changes in the catchment's snow regime by the end of the century. Mean snow water equivalent decreased by approximately 100 mm under one climate scenario and 120 mm under the other, while annual snowmelt declined by approximately 150 and 245 mm/year, respectively. At the same time, mean annual evapotranspiration increased by around 45 mm, and mean annual groundwater storage across the catchment decreased by approximately 110–130 mm.

Importantly, the response differed considerably between geological formations. Most of the decline in mean annual groundwater storage occurred within the low-permeability bedrock, where storage decreased by approximately 125 mm by the 2085 period. In contrast, mean annual groundwater storage within the Quaternary deposits remained relatively stable. These deposits, concentrated largely within the valley bottom, can receive recharge from precipitation and snowmelt as well as groundwater from the surrounding bedrock and, depending on the season, from streams.

The seasonal results reveal an important groundwater buffering effect. By 2085, simulated summer discharge declined substantially: August discharge decreased by approximately 38–45%, while September discharge declined by approximately 45–55%, depending on the climate scenario. Yet groundwater storage in the Quaternary deposits declined by only about 10–14% during these months. The researchers found that streams and Quaternary aquifers are closely connected: streams recharge these aquifers during spring, while groundwater stored within them contributes back to streamflow during low-flow periods.

The timing of low flows also changed. Under the simulations, the annual low-flow period gradually shifted from winter toward late summer, ultimately shifting to summer after 2092 in the scenario examined in detail. Future summer low flows generally remained higher than present-day winter low flows, but after exceptionally dry summers they approached similar levels. This suggests that groundwater can help buffer changes in streamflow, although its ability to do so may become limited during prolonged periods of low precipitation.

A sensitivity analysis further demonstrated that the geological composition of the catchment plays an important role in determining this buffering capacity. Moraine and talus deposits primarily regulate groundwater storage and buffering: lower hydraulic conductivity within these units increases storage and supports higher low flows. Bedrock plays a complementary role, with higher bedrock hydraulic conductivity allowing more stored groundwater to be released to streams during dry periods. Overall, the researchers found that both Quaternary deposits and bedrock are important for maintaining discharge during low-flow conditions.

This research demonstrates how HydroGeoSphere can be used to explicitly connect geology, groundwater storage, surface water and climate change within an integrated modelling framework. Rather than considering changes in snowmelt or streamflow alone, the study shows that understanding where groundwater is stored— and how different geological units release that water— is critical for evaluating future water availability in alpine environments. The findings highlight groundwater as an important buffer against declining summer flows, while also demonstrating that this buffering capacity is finite and strongly dependent on the hydrogeological characteristics of the catchment.

Abstract:

Alpine areas play a major role in the water supply of downstream valleys by releasing water during dry periods. Groundwater storage could significantly influence how changing climatic conditions affect the discharge regime. However, these processes are still not well understood in alpine areas. Studies on how climate change impacts water resources in alpine areas rarely consider the influence of geology explicitly. An integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model (HydroGeoSphere) was used to highlight the effect of groundwater in buffering future summer low flows and to give new insights into the role of geology in controlling discharge. The spatially explicit model allows the quantification of groundwater storage and its variation in different geological formations of an alpine catchment, under current and future conditions. The results suggest that, under future extreme climate change conditions, the average catchment groundwater storage in Quaternary deposits increases in winter and decreases in summer; the annual mean groundwater storage for the entire catchment decreases due to the decrease in mean annual groundwater recharge; and the total catchment discharge decreases and low-flow period shifts from winter to late summer by the end of this century. Future summer low flows will remain higher than the current winter low flows but will approach them closely after very dry summers. Proportionally, the decrease in groundwater storage will be less severe than the decrease in discharge. Finally, a sensitivity analysis illustrates that both Quaternary deposits (especially moraine and talus units) and bedrock play an important role in supporting discharge during low-flow periods.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ARTICLE.

Other questions include which aquifer did they travel along the bottom of on their way off-site (westwards) whether to Nutrite/Yara or past Varnicolor to beside the Howard St. Water Tower. Certainly DNAPLS have travelled off-site in both the Municipal Upper (MU) and the Municipal Lower (ML) Aquifer. Another question is whether the ML DNAPL got there via the "window" at OW-58 along Uniroyal Chemical's western property line, which pierces the Municipal Aquitard (MAT), or whether it came all the way from the Stroh property. Either way it had to have come via gravity flow from above. A third possibility is that high concentrations of chlorobenzene at ML pumping wells such as W8 could have come from DNAPL at OW57-32R near the water tower partially gravity flowing even deeper than 32 metres down into the nearby unconfined ML. While possible I think the other two are more likely.

Of course Lanxess and GHD know the answers and are not sharing. Keeping the public in the dark is absolutely mandatory for the coverup to succeed and this includes promoting co-optee citizens and dumping and defaming citizens who will not be co-opted and bent. You can figure out who is who despite the old joke that you need a roster to know who is playing on which team. 

Again there is still the possibility that the chlorobenzene DNAPL at OW57-32 (Howard St. Water Tower) came from a closer source such as either the former Borg Textiles (Howard Ave.) or from Varnicolor Chemical (Union St.). Again I am sure that Lanxess, GHD and probably the Ontario MECP know the truth but why share it if it will only denigrate the MECP's credibility and professionalism in missing yet another Elmira dirty polluter. It would also bring discredit upon the sweetheart deal of November 1991 between Uniroyal and the Ontario M.O.E. of the time.

Frank Rovers of Conestoga Rovers & Assoc., according to Susan Bryant, told the Uniroyal Public Advisory Committee (UPAC)  that the Uniroyal site was filled with sub-surface DNAPLS whether free phase or residual. Now it is possible that Susan slipped up and made an honest mistake when she told me that and in fact Frank Rovers had told her that privately. Who knows for sure although either way it certainly is interesting and damning .